And here’s my argument:
1. Despite the seriousness of the consequences for violating the PRA, I just don’t see the DOJ going to a federal magistrate to get a warrant to search an ex-President’s home on the basis of “there’s stuff missing from the file boxes.” That brings me to…
2. The missing records are consequential. Presumably every box contains an inventory of its contents, so the DOJ knows what is missing. That means it can assess the possible reason for each individual missing record. Some may relate to active or contemplated prosecutions. Sufficiently fleshed out, a judge may grant the warrant on that basis. Then...
3. The DOJ must have reasonable evidence that the missing records were not destroyed. Either they have testimony that the records are at Mar-a-Lago, or they realize that tfg needs to retain these records himself. It would be dumb to keep records that prove his culpability (though I don’t doubt that he would do it); more likely, they are useful to get what he wants from pliant Republican officeholders. I think Cmae has it exactly right; it’s blackmail potential. A few interviews with people who have been shown incriminating documents that belong in the Archives, and any Federal judge is granting that warrant.
I am not a lawyer, and your mileage may vary.
